7月7日油价上涨2%至6周高点

据烃加工网7月7日报道，油价7月7日攀升约2%，至6周以来高点，因市场对供应的担忧超过了进一步加息可能减缓经济增长和减少石油需求的担忧。

美国东部时间7月7日下午1时39分（格林尼治时间17时39分），布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.41美元，至每桶77.93美元，涨幅为1.8%。美国WTI上涨1.51美元至73.31美元，涨幅2.1%。

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两个基准指数都有望创下5月24日以来的最高收盘价，本周都上涨了约4%。

OANDA高级市场分析师厄拉姆表示，7月7日之前左右一周的油价反弹相当强劲，并受到了动力的支撑，此外还有新一轮减产对市场的影响。

两大主要石油出口国当周宣布了新的减产计划，使欧佩克+、欧佩克及其盟国的总日减产量达到500万桶左右，约占全球石油需求的5%。

美国金融服务公司Morning star的分析师在一份报告中表示，欧佩克+减产预计将收紧市场，推动2023年下半年的供应短缺，支撑油价上涨。

接近欧佩克的消息人士称，欧佩克可能会对明年的石油需求增长保持乐观的看法。

据石油分析公司Vortexa表示，目前在埃及红海港口Ain Sukhna附近的浮动储存设施中有1050万桶沙特原油，比6月中旬减少了近一半。

能源服务公司贝克休斯表示，当周美国能源公司10周来首次增加油气钻机数量，这是自2016年10月以来天然气钻机的最大单周增幅。

在挪威，由于人手短缺，Equinor ASA暂停了北海Oseberg East油田的生产。

美元7月7日跌至两周低点，此前数据显示美国就业增长低于预期但仍足够强劲，或促使美联储如其所暗示的那样，在本月稍晚时恢复加息。

美元走弱使得其他货币持有者的购买原油价格更便宜，这可能会提振石油需求。

荷兰国际集团(ING)首席国际经济学家James Knightley在一份报告中表示，就业报告弱于普遍预期，为近期的市场走势减弱了一些动力，但劳动力市场仍然过于紧张，因此预测美联储将于7月加息。

根据芝交所的分析师FedWatch Tool显示，市场预测美联储在7月25日至26日会议上加息25个基点的概率目前在95%左右，高于就业及经济数据公布前的92%。

借贷成本上升可能会减缓经济增长，减少石油需求。

在欧洲，数十年来居高不下的通胀率和地缘政治冲突的影响迫使企业冻结招聘和裁员。

在德国，经济迅速复苏的可能性似乎较小，因为数据显示工业生产意外下降。

郝芬 译自 烃加工网

原文如下:

Oil prices up 2% to 6-week high on supply concerns

Oil prices climbed about 2% to a six-week high on Friday as supply concerns outweighed fears that further interest rate hikes could slow economic growth and reduce demand for oil.

Brent futures rose $1.41, or 1.8%, to $77.93 a barrel by 1:39 p.m. EDT (1739 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.51, or 2.1%, to $73.31.

Both benchmarks were on track for their highest closes since May 24 with both up about 4% for the week.

"The rally over the last week or so ... has been quite strong and backed by momentum - as well as fresh cuts ," said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

Top two oil exporters announced fresh output cuts this week bringing total reductions by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to around 5 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of global oil demand.

"OPEC+ production cuts are expected to tighten the market, driving supply deficits in the second half of 2023, supporting higher oil prices," analysts at U.S. financial services company Morningstar said in a note.

OPEC will likely maintain an upbeat view on oil demand growth for next year, sources close to OPEC said.

Thelatest pledge to reduce oil exports will not require a similar cut in production, a government source told Reuters.

Oil analytics firm Vortexa said there are currently 10.5 million barrels of Saudi crude in floating storage off the Egyptian Red Sea port of Ain Sukhna, down by almost half from mid-June.

In the U.S., energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in 10 weeks, due to the biggest weekly increase in gas rigs since October 2016, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co.

In Norway, Equinor ASA paused production at its Oseberg East oil field in the North Sea due to staffing shortages.

Also supporting crude prices, the U.S. dollar, fell to a two-week low on Friday after data showed U.S. job growth was lower than expected but still strong enough to likely lead the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume raising interest rates later this month as it has signaled.

A weaker dollar makes crude cheaper for holders of other currencies, which could boost oil demand.

"A softer jobs report than widely expected has taken some of the steam out of recent market moves, but the labor market remains too tight ... A July rate hike is coming" from the U.S. Federal Reserve, James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, a bank, said in a note.

According to the CME Group Inc"s FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed increases interest rates by 25 basis points at its July 25-26 meeting is now around 95%, up from 92% just prior to the data coming out.

Higher borrowing costs could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

In Europe, decades-high inflation and the impact of war has forced companies to impose hiring freezes and lay-offs.

In Germany, a swift economic recovery appeared less likely as data showed a surprise fall in industrial production.